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bob_dunham
10-29-2003, 05:56 AM
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0310/28flare/

"last week's (coronal mass ejection) hit the earth with only a
glancing blow," says kohl, although it was sufficient to disrupt
airline communications. "today's eruption was pointed directly at us,
and is expected to have major effects."
______________
i dont know exactly what this article means by a "glancing blow," but
it seems to suggest that it wasnt a direct hit, whereas i was under
the impression that some members of this group were of the belief
that the last cme didnt have major effects on earth becasue it had
the wrong polarity - but i havnt seen that mentioned anywhere else.

also, when is it possible to determine the polarity of this current
cme, which is predicted to be a direct hit? im guessing the answer
will be "when the power goes out"........oh well, any clarifications
would be appreciated, thanks.

bob_dunham
10-29-2003, 09:32 AM
oh i get it, no one is responding because everyones computer is
unplugged! lol.

--- in asc2k@yahoogroups.com (/group/asc2k/post?postid=z2o83lpdzl4lse0-tyzp7sjbwclmjkx_yjm2kozwc2zbzm6ggvplq8dpdm8lenl3cx niu5jmyutnq8qncq), "bob_dunham" <bob_dunham@h...> wrote:
> http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0310/28flare/
>
> "last week's (coronal mass ejection) hit the earth with only a
> glancing blow," says kohl, although it was sufficient to disrupt
> airline communications. "today's eruption was pointed directly at
us,
> and is expected to have major effects."
> ______________
> i dont know exactly what this article means by a "glancing blow,"
but
> it seems to suggest that it wasnt a direct hit, whereas i was under
> the impression that some members of this group were of the belief
> that the last cme didnt have major effects on earth becasue it had
> the wrong polarity - but i havnt seen that mentioned anywhere
else.
>
> also, when is it possible to determine the polarity of this current
> cme, which is predicted to be a direct hit? im guessing the answer
> will be "when the power goes out"........oh well, any
clarifications
> would be appreciated, thanks.

Roger Nelson
10-29-2003, 02:12 PM
bob,

i noticed the comment about the polarity last week the day of the cme
event on either www.spaceweather.com or on www.spaceweather.gc.ca,
just to answer the question. on that day there was an extreme solar
strom warning.

also on that day i noticed problems with my internet connection which
utilizes high frequency communications. this is consistent with the
warnings about problems like this that was published on those web
sites.

while there does not seem to be anything out of the normal wrt the
trends in terms of sun spot counts, and perhaps our awareness of of
solar cme's is greater now than what it has been during previous
solar cycles, especially in the eyes of the general public. there
was no internet and spaceweather.com web sites during previous solar
cycles, if i recally correctly. the last time were were at this
point in the 11 solar cycle was in the mid 1990's and the internet
was no way near as developed as it is today, and to consider rolling
the clocks back to the 1980s or one more cycle back and we were just
getting used to desk-top computers.

i know that some of david w's comments seem a little alarmist, but i
would not dismiss the whole threat out of hand, even though trend
graphs would seem to argue that this should be done.

if my knowledge of astronomy and statistics is correct, we only have
a handful of solar cycles recorded, and we don't really know what is
normal and what is abnormal with a high degree of statistical
confidence. its well documented that there are solar cycles with-in
cycles. the best know cycle, the 11 year cycle with a double top
(the last peak occuring two years ago) has only been tracked
consistently for the last 100 years or so. before that the records
are not complete. there is though to be other cycles with peaks and
valleys operating over much longer periods.

so i advise vigilance and caution. its a time honoured tradition to,
when obervational evidence fails us, go with what our intuition tells
us. i have a deep intuition that there is someting going on that is
unprecedented.

and what the hey, it probably does us all some good to unplug all the
electronic devices we have come to rely on so heavily in our homes,
every once in a while, if not four our health's sake then for our own
sanity's sake.

roger


--- in asc2k@yahoogroups.com (/group/asc2k/post?postid=jwh85q-vearg5sqvwbo1xo_alqbzsku0quz6_wbgz6fkslcazwyokag6d zzfbfqgxywvwreekvvi5kjfen0), "bob_dunham" <bob_dunham@h...> wrote:
> oh i get it, no one is responding because everyones computer is
> unplugged! lol.
>
> --- in asc2k@yahoogroups.com (/group/asc2k/post?postid=jwh85q-vearg5sqvwbo1xo_alqbzsku0quz6_wbgz6fkslcazwyokag6d zzfbfqgxywvwreekvvi5kjfen0), "bob_dunham" <bob_dunham@h...> wrote:
> > http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0310/28flare/
.....
> > also, when is it possible to determine the polarity of this
current
> > cme, which is predicted to be a direct hit? im guessing the
answer
> > will be "when the power goes out"........oh well, any
> clarifications
> > would be appreciated, thanks.

Chris Hamilton
10-29-2003, 03:35 PM
hi bob,

the first cme on friday (maybe before), i think, was facing (if you look at
a pic of the sun) southwest, so naturally it would spew out to earth's left,
thus glancing it. at the time, everyone thought it was the big one, but then
the sunspot rotated until it was directly in front of our earth camera, and
then it *really* spewed at us:). so, in the article, glancing blow referred
to what happened last week. so, a *direct hit* is when that cme is smack dab
in front of the camera, slightly south of the sun's equator (soho is *above*
the earth relatively, so south of the equator looks like straight ahead in
the soho pics). hey...if i explained that wrong someone come to my rescue
please:). chris

> i dont know exactly what this article means by a "glancing blow," but
> it seems to suggest that it wasnt a direct hit,